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Economic Update 10/07/13

WALL STREET FEELS EFFECTS OF SHUTDOWN

Even with the federal government mostly out of commission last week and a debt ceiling battle brewing, stocks didn’t fall too far. The NASDAQ actually rose 0.69% in five trading days, marking its fifth straight weekly advance; the S&P 500 lost only 0.07%. The CBOE VIX, unsurprisingly, rose 9.25% last week to settle at 16.89 Friday. COMEX gold hit its lowest level since August on Tuesday, and the dollar touched a one-month low against the yen on Thursday. The week ended with no resolution to the budget impasse. Last week, International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde cautioned that U.S. GDP could slip below 2% this year if the debt ceiling is not raised.

ADP REPORT GAINS GREATER SIGNIFICANCE

As the Labor Department’s September employment report didn’t come out last week, the ADP National Employment Report took center stage. ADP said private payrolls expanded by 166,000 jobs last month; economists polled by Reuters had forecast an increase of 180,000. ADP compiles its report off of available data, as opposed to the fresh data presented by the Labor Department on the first Friday of each month. The official September jobs report will likely appear on the Friday after the federal government reopens.

MANUFACTURING EXPANDS IN SEPTEMBER

The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager index for the factory sector came in at a healthy 56.2 for September, up from 55.7 in August. The Institute’s non-manufacturing PMI fell 4.2 points in September to 54.4; even so, it showed the service sector growing for the 45th straight month.

THIS WEEK: No major economic releases are scheduled for Monday. Quarterly results from Yum! Brands and Alcoa will kick off a new earnings season Tuesday. Wednesday offers earnings reports from Family Dollar and Costco, and the September 17-18 FOMC minutes. Thursday brings the latest initial jobless claims figures, plus a speech from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi at the Economic Club of New York. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase report earnings Friday, and the preliminary October consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan appears; the September PPI and September retail sales reports are also slated to be released.

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